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14th of September 2016 - Looking back at my gambling activity and the US Elections (And wouldn't call it betting)

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Since my last bet on the UK Referendum I lost even more than what I initially described in this thread:

 

http://www.gamblingstories.com/topic/577-24th-of-june-2016-sad/

 

Looks like I was supposed to get around £10,000 after the US Elections ... as I described it here much earlier:

 

http://www.gamblingstories.com/topic/536-18th-of-february-2nd-of-march-2016-call-it-non-stop-betting/

 

However looks like when I was betting on the UK Referendum I was so worried about what I was doing back then, completely didn't know how to beat this randomness exactly in these moments where things got completely in swings from one side to another ... the currency market was the same, I watched it too for indication ... initially the market believed the UK will vote to remain in the EU .... GBPUSD was touching the 1.50 and even tried to go above to almost 1.51 (and I was so 'happy' at this time and couldn't even settle the bet with some 'sure' winnings) and I just got carried on and then many swings started ... it went down but nobody could know if it would really happen ... after all the "Remain" thing was 'dead certain' .... like a very sure thing.....

 

Anyway - the 'aftermath' of my US election bets .... let's talk about it ... so ....

 

I had these thoughts in my mind for quite a while.... not about my betting, I completely forgot about that.... but simply noticing that I 'touched' the money in Matchbook when there were swings with the UK Referendum (and I also told myself back then I would never touch it etc. etc.) and bottom line the picture was no longer like this:

 

http://gamblingstories.com/340.png

 

I was no longer going to get £10,000 after the US elections .... so I decided to check how much it would be ...

 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

And this is what I want to share ... it could also be open for interpretation and discussion whether this is gambling or not .... I personally do not see it as an act of gambling, at least not as part of an addiction or anything - so let me show you.

 

Please review these 3 files, I posted them before but re-added them for ease of follow up:

 

http://gamblingstories.com/420.png

http://gamblingstories.com/421.png

http://gamblingstories.com/422.png

 

Basically - this is the current situation ....

  • If Hillary wins I get back £7,870 approximately.
  • If Trump wins I get back £5,515 approximately (in file 422 - consider Matchbook takes 1% of the winnings as commission - and there is a balance of £1,390 in the account approx.).

Just 1-2 days ago Hillary had a health issue as well, seems like the media is going to forget about it, but I personally like Trump (and would like him to win) and also don't want to have such a huge difference in case he wins and beats Hillary the favorite.

 

So what I did is called hedging.

 

Basically - I didn't want to potentially end up losing a huge difference of £2,355 between the 2 outcomes which in a way - are very random ... up to November we got plenty of time and I don't want to 'sweat' it or hope for one to win ....

 

So I needed a way to bet but I already shut down all possible accounts ... so I did what I did long time ago with BetFair .... opened a new account, with slightly different DOB and one letter off in my name .... deposited £1,000 and placed this bet:

 

423.png

 

Yes, I'm aware it's not okay to try and bypass self-exclusion ... in fact unlike Bet365 - BetFair did put my account with the fraud team for providing different DOB (=Date of Birth) but they have called me just recently and I was completely honest about everything (honesty is the best policy) - so they referred my account now from fraud to responsible gambling department, now my account is linked to them and no longer to the fraud dept - and based on my experience they would probably tell me it will be permanently closed and once the bet settles I would be able to withdraw - BUT I am prepared for all scenarios ... because I learned in life that so many things could surprise you ....

 

But let's assume that is the case .... then:

  • If Hillary wins I get back £7,870 approximately [[practically speaking - less £1,000 I just spent it would be £6,870 approx]].
  • If Trump wins I get back £8,265 approximately [[practically speaking - less £1,000 would be £7,265 approx.]]

That's basically what I wanted to achieve.... to hedge and stop any future anxiety about this.

I was worried about it because there is no point of taking a risk .... in fact I wasn't even aware that I pushed the hedge slightly over Hillary by £400 but with that I'm fine ... I'm not going to chase things to the bottom and I don't want to be obsessed with this like I was before ... I was just interested in hedging.

 

A few things I wanted to add about the feelings involved:

  • Firstly I used BetFair odds (2.75) and not the Exchange (3.20 or 3.09 after commissions) because I didn't want this bet to get cancelled, or anything like that (I preferred to take less risks because practically I'm self-excluded).
  • Yesterday and 2 days ago when initial thoughts of "fixing" this (i.e. hedging) were in my mind I felt like "I have to do this, it's a potential waste of a lot of money and anxiety" ... so I even had thoughts of flying to the UK and betting there ... it's absolutely crazy to think like this, don't you think? (I did calculate that 2 round trips would cost around £600 plus around £50 for hotels for 2 separate nights using promo codes etc., one to get there and bet, another to collect the winnings and stay for the night and then leave) ....

So regarding the 2nd point I told myself I'm married now, also have a baby ... it's not like when I was single and I actually did it before (took a flight just to place a bet, did it more than once in my life btw) .... but I also thought there is no need to go crazy over £2,300 that I could lose potentially ... so if it meant to be then it meant to be.

 

Eventually I thought of this "easy way" with BetFair and just glad I'm done with this ....

 

Did it make me feel like I want to gamble again? absolutely not.

I just wanted to hedge and forget about what happens ... still waiting to hear back from BetFair Responsible Gambling by the way ....

 

Also the baby is sick, I picked him up from childcare (nursery) today earlier ... he started last week .... but already seems like other babies make him sick there - lack of responsibility .... I hope to talk about it more....

 

Honestly I want to use this site to talk SOLELY about my life and not about bets ... and I'm glad I did it a few times before, it's great. I really look forward for the end of the US Elections and have no more "PENDING" bets in my life!

 

And yes ... I could only feel so sick and sorry for placing bets on the US elections ... you know ... even if there is any "profit" from them ... the pound was sinking so badly for the past few months (due to all this "Brexit") so just in terms of currency exchange the losses are already massive ... and that without even looking at the mental and psychological and time loss from all this (although I have to say I am genuinely interested in the US Elections ... I do want Trump to win because he understands the political and economic issues much better than Hillary, a Wall Street puppet doing what they want ... Trump has money, he doesn't need lobbyists, he wants to do what's right for the world ... he is also more aggressive against terrorists and it's time to kick ISIS out of this world indeed ... they made horrible videos of killing other human beings)....

 

Anyway - the political side - is interesting - but the betting side of it that I unfortunately got into - I'd be glad to put it all behind and I'm doing so already ... actually life is so much better without it ... and thankfully I'm also doing great at work, totally mean it.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

So bottom line in a few words - this thread was meant to discuss the fact I had to hedge my US election bets, and besides that - I continue living my life betting free since the 24th of June 2016 and would like to keep it that way until the rest of my life.

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Yes, I'm aware it's not okay to try and bypass self-exclusion ... in fact unlike Bet365 - BetFair did put my account with the fraud team for providing different DOB (=Date of Birth) but they have called me just recently and I was completely honest about everything (honesty is the best policy) - so they referred my account now from fraud to responsible gambling department, now my account is linked to them and no longer to the fraud dept - and based on my experience they would probably tell me it will be permanently closed and once the bet settles I would be able to withdraw - BUT I am prepared for all scenarios ... because I learned in life that so many things could surprise you ....

 

Okay,

So I just spent lots of time today on the phone, chat and Twitter with BetFair.

 

Chat and Twitter just told me to email account security at BetFair for any information on the account, which is fine.

On the phone it was very strange - they said "they suggest" that I will wait until the bet settles and then if it wins contact them back to see if I would be eligible to withdraw the funds or not ....

 

Never heard that before. Quite unscrupulous to say something like that.

 

Anyway I'm waiting to hear back from their "Account Security" department and will see what happens then.

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Okay,

So I just spent lots of time today on the phone, chat and Twitter with BetFair.

 

Chat and Twitter just told me to email account security at BetFair for any information on the account, which is fine.

On the phone it was very strange - they said "they suggest" that I will wait until the bet settles and then if it wins contact them back to see if I would be eligible to withdraw the funds or not ....

 

Never heard that before. Quite unscrupulous to say something like that.

 

Anyway I'm waiting to hear back from their "Account Security" department and will see what happens then.

 

Well, unfortunately after spending quite a while on chat + phone with BetFair they made a final decision.

BetFair is returning my deposit back to my card and the bet is cancelled.

That is because I have a self-exclusion with them.

Well, in that case I have to look elsewhere and the situation now is back to be:

  • If Hillary wins I get back £7,870 approximately.
  • If Trump wins I get back £5,515 approximately

It sucks, but that's what it is.

I don't know of any other bookmaker (reliable one) that I can use to deposit the funds with.

Odds also dropped on Trump - it sucks but I can't do much about it.

 

I will see what I can do.

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Continuing with my story here - on the day BetFair told me my account will remain closed permanently (due to permanent self-exclusion) but that also my bet is cancelled and the deposit of £1,000 is refunded - I tried to think of a solution.

 

I found out that I asked BetDaq to permanently self-exclude my account back in July 2010 ... and the UK has a law (as far as I know, or at least a guideline) that after 5 years you could potentially ask to cancel something "permanent" especially with gambling because 5 years is usually the longest time that an account can be self-excluded for. It's quite a normal practice.

 

So I asked BetDaq about that - and they allowed me to reopen the account with a 24 hour cooling period - the account got reopened today.

 

I deposited in total £900 and placed it on Trump:

 

http://gamblingstories.com/424.png

 

I did it because considering the current odds - they do seem to drop more on Trump:

 

425.png

(collected from OddsChecker.com)

 

For instance the 2.75 odds I had from BetFair Sportsbook (not exchange) as shown in post #1 in this thread- was now dropped to 2.63 and you can also see above in the image that most odds are going south (the lowest one is 2.35 which is definitely not a "bargain" if you ask me) ...

 

Again - I'm not advocating or suggesting anyone to bet - please by all means avoid it - what you see is that I had to do it because I wanted to alleviate any tension/aggravation or just not be be busy with my "bets" on the elections if I know they equally provide more or less the same return! So only if you really "have to" - and please ask yourself and double check if you really "have to" bet - only then try to shop for the best odds out there, again, within your availability - for instance - I'm self-excluded from almost all possible bookmakers and I do intend to self-exclude my BetDaq account as well as I don't want any access to gambling after the US elections!

 

So back to the numbers:

As shown in the file 424.png (link above the image above) - the profit would be approximately £1665.

BetDaq charges 5% commission (used to be 2% but it was not profitable for them so they changed it since May 2016) - so £1665 * 0.95 is approximately £1580

 

£1580 (profit) + £900 (stake/deposit) = £2,480

For odds calculation that is approximately £2480 / £900 = 2.755 so it's almost more or less the same as the 2.75 I received from BetFair (which is now 2.63 there). So overall - not bad.

 

Let's go back to calculate this - previously that was the case:

  • If Hillary wins I get back £7,870 approximately.
  • If Trump wins I get back £5,515 approximately

Now:

  • If Hillary wins I get back £7,870 approximately. If I deduct the £900 I deposited today net profit would be = £6,970.
  • If Trump wins I get back £5,515 + £2,480 = £7,995. If I deduct the £900 I deposited today net profit would be  = £7,095.

So basically there is a difference of £125 in the outcomes which is quite negligible for me, I didn't bother to put it to the point, I just wanted to tick the box and make sure I'm out of any type of betting or gambling and just managed to mitigate and minimize any aspect of it whatsoever (and on a personal note the fact Trump yields slightly more is something that I personally prefer, I said it before - I do like him better than Hillary but that has nothing to do with betting!)

 

So how do I feel about it? Great!

Honestly if I wasn't away from gambling for almost 3 months now I don't think I would have had the £900 to deposit today ... instead I would probably had to wait for the £1,000 to be refunded back from BetFair (they said it would take 3-5 working days, the ID&Verification personnel told me over the phone when he spoke to me about my account that it should be this mid week or at latest end of week) - so anyway - bottom line is the less I get busy or waste money and energy and time on gambling - the better my life is.

 

I am seriously asking anyone who reads this to not think it's okay to gamble or that I'm saying gambling is okay - I am absolutely against it... in fact morally speaking all my bets would be taking money away from people one way or another - but unfortunately I had to do it only because I was already in it ... but I have no intention of betting any further - that's why I said in the title that I don't really treat this specific bet as gambling - hedging and trying to get away from bad things you've done in life is good - the more you stay away from it the better your life is.

 

Stay positive.

Stay gambling free!

I am going to continue my gambling free journey from the 24th of June 2016 hopefully until the end of my life.

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Woke up a few hours ago, took care of the baby with my wife ... very happy about it.

 

Just noted this now ... looks like I forgot to add another £100 from Pinnacle on Trump from file 421.png (see post #1 above) - anyway it's all negligible for me. I'm quite interested to see the 1st debate - but not because of betting but simply because I truly hope the world doesn't want another Wall Street puppet for 8 more years! (and Obama was worse than all).

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Had some time to sum it up:

 

My bets on The Crooked:

http://gamblingstories.com/420.png
http://gamblingstories.com/421.png

Total invested: £2,500 + £1,720 + £75 = £4,295

My bets on Trump:

http://gamblingstories.com/422.png
http://gamblingstories.com/424.png

Total invested: £1395 + £900 = £2,295

TOTAL INVESTED = £6,590

MINIMUM SURE PROFITS = £7,870 if The Crooked wins (NET PROFIT = £1,280)
MAXIMUM SURE PROFITS = £8,100 if Trump wins (NET PROFIT = £1,510)
 

But it's not worth it, the value of the pound has gone so low and anyway gambling is not worth it.

But I just documented it for documenting purposes only.

 

Let's keep up!

I'm so excited about the US elections not because of betting but because we might have a real chance to stop the financial terrorism that was imposed on us since 2008.

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Just a small update - I felt very sad today for Donald, I hope he doesn't lose the momentum but Hillary's FB page and other factors show she's accelerating again ... I felt so sad with that ... anyway I've decided to make sure it's all even so I won't have to touch this anymore.

 

Basically what I did is betting £150 on Hillary on odds of 1.50 so make sure the results would be even in either way:

 

 

426.png

 

BEFORE:

 

MINIMUM SURE PROFITS = £7,870 if The Crooked wins (NET PROFIT = £1,280)
MAXIMUM SURE PROFITS = £8,100 if Trump wins (NET PROFIT = £1,510)

 

NOW:

 

MINIMUM SURE PROFITS = £7,870 + £70 (approx.) if The Crooked wins (NET PROFIT = £1,350)
MAXIMUM SURE PROFITS = £8,100 - £150 if Trump wins (NET PROFIT = £1,360)

 

So pretty much either one yields £1,355 approx.

 

I feel sad and it's not because of gambling.

But because all of a sudden the media and Hillary attacks Trump for using $258,000 from his charity to settle lawsuits ... and it seems like they just got more power than him ... I don't know what to say ...

 

It's not about gambling here ... it's about the best for the people.

And yet people vote for the wrong candidate and I don't know why ...

 

It's sad ... I hope it can change but I'm starting to lose hope....

 

I feel like these losses in gambling I had even though this is not a loss ... I just feel it like a personal loss ... I hate this crooked witch because she will make people's lives worse..

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