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  1. 14th of May 2017 - NBA WCF Game 1 - Injury

    Remember there is a link I posted here to Gambling Facts & Fictions? If you read through there, you would see Stephen Katz says: Key players get hurt on teams all the time and enough of the time the team may win anyway because the other players on the team step-up and actually play better for awhile. Teams that never won before on a muddy field can suddenly win on a muddy field. All of the new information along with your hunches, intuitions and feelings about a given game are all meaningless betting against a bookie. It does not matter whether you studiously analyzed all of the stats and trends then came up with some conclusion or whether you just feel lucky. In the long-run you will always lose money and in the short-run also if betting on enough games. And according to the media that is the key moment that changed the outcome of Game 1 ... and note SA with their coach Popovich has gone 316-0 wins when leading 25+ points in a game - this broke the record tonight: Now, Don't get me wrong - I don't believe media hypes and I am not sure if that's the moment that changed everything or not, but on the other hand I certainly don't think Kawhi Leonard was making a show - he seriously got injured and it hurts and I wish him well. The reason I brought this up is because I wanted to demonstrate how valuable and true is what Katz's saying ... nobody can foresee such incidents in advance, and they don't always have big impact - and of course normally these incidents don't happen .... However, I've always held mixed feelings about this - on the one hand I do agree with Katz and predicting results is not something that can be done without understanding the randomness involved - nonetheless I do honestly believe as I mentioned many times in this forum that the "NBA is Rigged". And yes, the NBA is rigged, it is rigged, I believe it is rigged 100% ... and because of that I do think there are some "betting opportunities" for those who want to take them - but is it worth it? Is it worth getting into it? Is it ethically 100% okay? I would hesitate with the "yes" answer based not only on my own experience but on the very nature of gambling - it isolates the gambler so badly and making him feel in utopian world of his own ... perhaps these kind of "drugs" are good for just a few hours say you want to take your mind off something but long term (i.e. anything over a few hours) is a recipe for disaster or for bad life or at most "mixed life" - and does anyone want to get into it? So again - I have my own view of gambling and how I look at it ... and I mentioned before it is a bad habit.... however no one can dispute the fact the NBA is rigged and if someone wants to exploit it (e.g. buy low, sell high ... look for change of patterns, live betting on over/under where the line is 40 points away from the original line or what's not) .... it could be done, but the element of randomness would always be there, and it is part of it (as one told me once - gambling is like an art for a sports bettor) .... But ask yourself is it worth getting into it? The system is designed to make sure you lose in the end anyway ... so even if you disagree with Katz's ruling here: You must understand that even if the vastly remote, basically impossible chance existed that you were a bit smarter than the Las Vegas oddsmakers, you would still lose anyway because of the house edge. Your bankroll would still get ground out. But get back to reality. The chance of you being smarter than the Las Vegas bookies or the local illegal bookies who get their odds from Las Vegas, to overcome the house edge, just simply is not going to be possible. So forget about it! In the end of the day I would agree with him - I mean even a unique person, one of a kind, would somehow find out how to exploit American (or other) sports - this is still one of the worst ways to make money, period .... so it's better to focus on something else, because gambling or sports betting is simply not worth it, it's not.
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